Be more Bayesian: True life is lived when tiny changes occur.
February 7, 2023
2 min read
It is the individual who knows how little they know about themselves who stands the most reasonable chance of finding out something about themselves before they die.
Bayesian inference is a method in statistics in which Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of a hypothesis as new evidence or information becomes available.
The Lean Startup Method calls it iteration. Entrepreneurial iteration is course correcting in the face of feedback.
Bayesian inference is a mathematical model for revising and updating based on acquiring new knowledge and information. Its a core concept in artificial intelligence.
True life is lived when tiny changes occur.
- Leo Tolstoy
We can incorporate a Bayesian mindset and update our opinions and beliefs as we encounter new information. We can be fluid in our thinking and, as the contours of our understanding evolve, respond to those new contours with revised opinions. We can change our minds in light of new information.
Its a model for incorporating feedback and course correcting. Its an iterative technique for refinement and asymptotically approaching a goal. Just get a dart on the dartboard, and then iterate towards the bullseye.
Here’s what Elon Musk has to say on the subject,
I think it’s very important to have a feedback loop, where you’re constantly thinking about what you’ve done and how you could be doing it better. I think that’s the single best piece of advice: constantly think about how you could be doing things better and questioning yourself.
This is the way we refine out ideas and become more enlightened.
Less dogma, more transformation.
Celebrate the tiny changes. Your future depends on what you do today. Make it count.
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